21-09-2016, 05:14 AM

Do any of you play any fantasy sports pool ? If so, what things do you look at when selecting players for your pool ?

I'm currently playing Fantasy Football (Canadian Football League, similar to the NFL.)

I start by choosing which teams will score the most points that week. Obviously, players on the teams that score the most points are more likely to score the most points than players on the other teams.

It didn't take long for me to face the big question: will the the best offense score more points against the best defense than the worst offense will score against the worst defense ? I realized that I need to look at the difference between the strength of a team's offense with the strength of their opponent's defense.

To do that quantitatively, I calculate the average points scored (avg.pts.scored) and allowed (avg.pts.allowed) per game by each team. Then, for each team, I calculate the average points allowed each game by all of that team's opponents. Each week, when it comes time to select my team for the week's matches, I compare the average points allowed by a team's opponent to the average points allowed by all that team's opponents. The idea is that if TeamA plays TeamB, and TeamB's defense has allowed more points per game than the average of all of TeamA's opponents, then I can expect TeamA to score more points when playing against TeamB. I then add that difference to the average points scored per game by TeamA, which gives me the amount of points I can expect TeamA to score when playing TeamB.

TeamA_expected_points = TeamA_avg.pts.scored + (TeamB_avg.pts.allowed - avg.pts.allowed_by_TeamA's_opponents)

Of course, it's not precise. In a game like North American football, there are tons of other factors that cause a team to perform much better or much worse than their average. But at least it gives me an idea of how strong a team's offense is compared to their opponent's defense.

I'm currently playing Fantasy Football (Canadian Football League, similar to the NFL.)

I start by choosing which teams will score the most points that week. Obviously, players on the teams that score the most points are more likely to score the most points than players on the other teams.

It didn't take long for me to face the big question: will the the best offense score more points against the best defense than the worst offense will score against the worst defense ? I realized that I need to look at the difference between the strength of a team's offense with the strength of their opponent's defense.

To do that quantitatively, I calculate the average points scored (avg.pts.scored) and allowed (avg.pts.allowed) per game by each team. Then, for each team, I calculate the average points allowed each game by all of that team's opponents. Each week, when it comes time to select my team for the week's matches, I compare the average points allowed by a team's opponent to the average points allowed by all that team's opponents. The idea is that if TeamA plays TeamB, and TeamB's defense has allowed more points per game than the average of all of TeamA's opponents, then I can expect TeamA to score more points when playing against TeamB. I then add that difference to the average points scored per game by TeamA, which gives me the amount of points I can expect TeamA to score when playing TeamB.

TeamA_expected_points = TeamA_avg.pts.scored + (TeamB_avg.pts.allowed - avg.pts.allowed_by_TeamA's_opponents)

Of course, it's not precise. In a game like North American football, there are tons of other factors that cause a team to perform much better or much worse than their average. But at least it gives me an idea of how strong a team's offense is compared to their opponent's defense.