Over at stock analyst website Seeking Alpha, columnist George Kesarios has looked deep into BlackBerry’s business and likes what he sees.
George confirms what many of us are feeling – that, despite the naysayers, the turnaround is bang on course and starting to deliver the goods.
Starting with the last earnings call, rather than see some pessimistic angle he agrees with OUR take on the situation (from March 28th $BBRY Q4 Results , The Last Word – All To Plan So Far) and not the kneejerk negativity we saw in certain quarters.
In fact, George is extremely upbeat, describing the Q4 results thus:
‘On an Earnings Per Share basis, the results literally blew past analyst estimates. As a reminder, the market was expecting a loss of $0.56 per share, and instead the company reported an adjusted loss of $0.08 per share. What this means is that BlackBerry is almost breaking even. In fact I now anticipate the company to make money much sooner than anticipated by the market.
A long way from bust, don’t you think?
‘As to the future, the company is doing all the right things in my book, the only problem is that all these things are still in fermentation.’
What George means by this is that the public figures are always reflective of the past. So, for example,
1) The upcoming launches of the Z3 and Q20 and how the results of these won’t be felt in earnings calls until the quarter AFTER they actually launch (something fans and detractors alike should take note of) equally
2) The launch of BES12 by the end of 2014 he thinks is a great idea that will also help sell handsets and services (both revenue generators in themselves) – but the effects won’t be seen until Q1 2015
3) He sees the NatHealth acquisition as a very smart move. He has done a little research into the healthcare industry ‘I was amazed at the complications involving how information is handled and processed in this business. Make no mistake folks, this is a multibillion dollar business that is still in its early stages. And because the safety of information and message handling are BlackBerry’s specialty, I think we will all be surprised at the revenue and profits to be had in this industry several years from now. And BlackBerry will be right in the middle of it.’
Which speaks volumes, don’t you think?
He then turns to 3 wonderful real life examples of how BlackBerry is WINNING in the corporate sector end to end, from BES10, through BB10 handset deployment, app development and right through to use of BBM as a corporate tool noting:
‘I mean if you start thinking of the possibilities, they are literally endless.’
Lastly George says,
‘The bottom line is that BlackBerry has the goods for shares to see higher prices, however most of the goods, that will propel shares higher will take several quarters to ferment. In the mean time, I think management is doing a great job focusing on the important things and laying the groundwork for the future, as well as doing a very good job in money management.
So when will we pop the cork and drink some bubbly? This is hard to tell, however please keep in mind that markets discount future activity today. So while we will not see much in terms of increased revenue or profits before Q1 of 2015, the market will be looking at BlackBerry very closely, and will not wait until Q1 of 2015 if it thinks (Like I do) that the company will gain traction, but will probably make its move on the stock sooner.’
So, if you think George is right – and we do – expect to see more upward movement in the stock price sooner rather than later.
A long way from doom and gloom, wouldn’t you say?
Why not pop this in the eyeballs of the next person who tells you BlackBerry is going bust?
Just to let them know we aren’t going anywhere soon…
Source: Seeking Alpha