BlackBerry Poised to Beat Estimates Yet Again?

bull-market-2012

Yes we are approaching that time of year again….quarterly earnings time. And as in the past, many in the tech media will have already typed up what their expectations are and most will start with the typical words such as “struggling”, “beleaguered” and so on. In fact, many like our “friends” over at BGR will just recycle the same stuff they’re been spewing for a couple of year and just change the date. They don’t even change the photos as many still use the old legacy Bold when they speak about BlackBerry. sadly misinformed yet still feel the need to “inform”. The blind leading the blind as they say.

Anyways, moving on from there. There are some who do report based on facts and figures. Who knew, what a novel concept hey Gellar?

One of our trusted members, Veeru, here at UTB pointed us to an article titled ‘Why BlackBerry (BBRY) Could Beat Earnings Estimates Again’ by Zacks Equity Research found here on Yahoo Finance. Zacks is a stock research and analytics firm that since 1986 have nearly tripled the S&P 500 using their unique methods and analytics techniques and are reported on by Forbes, Nasdaq, Morning Start, Yahoo Finance, market watch and the list goes one.

Now lets cut to the chase. They came to this conclusion not based on opinion but rather based on a proprietary analytical technique they refer to as Earnings ESP. Not earning per share but rather Earnings Surprise Prediction. Basically this is their way of predicting which stock will positively surprise ahead of time and they have a 70% success rate in doing so.

Looking at BlackBerry’s earning reports over the last 2 quarters as well as what John Chen and his team has done is such a short period of time, I can’t help but agree with Zacks analysis.

“This company has seen a nice streak of beating earnings estimates, especially when looking at the previous two reports. In fact, in these reports, BBRY has beaten estimates by at least 55.0% in both cases, suggesting it has a nice short-term history of crushing expectations.”

Wow, beating estimate by at least 55% 2 quarters in a row. How is that for a “dying” or “dead” company as some would like us to believe. But wait, there’s more and for this I will have to explain a little more what Zacks ESP is. Better yet, here it is below, directly from them:

“The Earnings ESP uses Zacks proprietary methodology for determining the Most Accurate Estimate, and then compares that to the Zacks Consensus Estimate. The percentage difference between the two is the ‘expected’ surprise that Zacks is predicting the company will report come earnings time.
For example, if the Most Accurate Estimate (as determined by Zacks) for a company about to report is $1.25, while the full Zacks Consensus Estimate is $1.22; that’s a +3 cent difference for an expected surprise prediction (ESP) of 2.5%.”

So with that said, according to their research and stated in the article sited above, BlackBerry currently has a Zacks Earning ESP of +17.65%. And remember 7 times out of 10 a positive ESP will accurately predict a positive surprise as has been proven in the past.

So as some people prepare to do their best “BlackBerry is Dead” posts as they have done for the last couple of years, things are looking up. Crushing estimates, creating new revenue streams, partnerships, buying other companies and not to mention new innovative……..yes I said INNOVATIVE devices. I look forward to the next earnings report where I believe we will be in for yet another surprise as much of what has happened this last quarter has been largely positive.

  • G-bone

    Yeah, I gotta believe things are going well, because all of a sudden i’m seeing unknown dudes pop up on Seeking Alpha trying to say things aren’t REALLY that good and how Googles imaginary security will be better and the Apple / IBM marriage made in hell is really gonna show everyone.
    So, I see bright days ahead.

    #ProBlackBerry

    • ray689

      Those people you see popping up are likely the ones who are short and currently afraid of losing their shorts…pun intended.

  • veeru789

    Great article!
    As Mr Chen has said time and again, the turn around will take time and will be gradually. Judging by facts, looks like BlackBerry is well on their way.
    Go BBRY GO!

    • ray689

      Well put Veeru and great find by the way.

  • Brad

    I for one am actually excited about the next earnings call. May finally be the one to shut up all the ‘beleaguered’ bloggers out there hoping BlackBerry dies.

    • ray689

      Not sure anything will shut those people up. Too many butt hurt bloggers and wanna be journalists and most have made their stance known and would never admit they were wrong. Even when presented with actual proof that they were wrong as we have seen from a certain “NOT” fan site.

  • razrrob

    Thanks for bringing this out Ray!

    The nice thing about ERs is they deal with numbers, facts. When people try and spin the numbers to their purpose they are introducing opinion, and it becomes quickly obvious what their agenda is. Very few so called ‘journalists’ have little to gain by putting a positive spin on BlackBerry, but as time goes on and Chen’s plan comes to fruition it will become harder and harder to spin. Introducing the Z3 to go after the international market was sheer genius. Followed by the Passport, Classic, and Khan they’re offering something for everyone as opposed to recycling the same old same old tired ideas and trying to package it as iNnovation.

    There has never been a better time to go #BackToBlack

  • Blackjack

    I am getting out my surfboard and riding this wave!! Kowabunga!! locco_smiley_29

    • Canuckvoip

      Methinks I may dive in a little deeper as well…

  • ital1

    Great write up Ray. I am eagerly anticipating the September earnings call where BlackBerry will once again prove to the short sellers that they’re not going bankrupt nor going to leave the hand set market.

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